EFL Cup: Manchester City vs Liverpool! Eight key players unavailable for start, so why am I still hopeful for City?

Tonight, let's discuss the headline match: EFL Cup clash between Manchester City and Liverpool!

Since Guardiola began managing City in June 2016, they have faced Liverpool 19 times, securing only 4 victories, showing Klopp’s clear dominance.

The situation looks even tougher today: City is more heavily affected by the World Cup.

As is widely known, the Premier League has the most World Cup participants (a total of 134), with City providing 16 players, the highest number in the league.

City players have logged a total of 4,624 minutes at the World Cup, again the most among Premier League clubs.

So, with a poor head-to-head record and heavy World Cup impact, is City doomed tonight?

Probably not.

Yes, City is more affected by the World Cup.

For example, they have eight Portuguese or English internationals who only returned to training yesterday, so they definitely won’t be starting.

But as a team capable of fielding two strong Premier League-level lineups, City can still put out a decent starting eleven tonight.

This image shows Xiao Jiu’s predicted starting lineup:

The three forwards and three midfielders are basically confirmed; the only uncertainty is whether Lewis or Akanji will play right-back.

The main weakness of this lineup lies in the full-backs, who will be about 70% effective defensively and at least 50% in attack.

However, Liverpool’s lineup is actually weaker.

Firstly, their left-side attack will be weaker because both Jota and Diaz are out, possibly forcing striker Nunez to play out of position.

More importantly — Van Dijk won’t be playing.

Van Dijk has played the most minutes for Liverpool this season and is exhausted; since this match is somewhat meaningless, Klopp has extended his rest and plans to have him back for the next game against Aston Villa.

Van Dijk is irreplaceable for Liverpool.

In the past four seasons, Liverpool’s final points exceeded expected values in three seasons, except for 20/21.

What happened that season? Van Dijk was sidelined for the entire campaign.

Liverpool has devised a very unique way to handle high pressing defense — by drawing offsides.

Last season, they led the five major leagues in offsides drawn, far surpassing other teams.

Van Dijk’s leadership was the key to their success in executing this tactic.

Now, City’s approach against Liverpool is much more direct; after multiple failures, Guardiola has realized that relying on methodical possession to beat Liverpool is unrealistic.

Last season, City attacked behind Liverpool’s defense aggressively, with some success like Jesus’ remarkable offside-breaking goal.

But most of the time, City fell into Liverpool’s offside trap, and goals were disallowed.

With Van Dijk absent, is Liverpool’s offside trap still as effective?

Plus, Haaland will be very happy.

Perhaps the future belongs to him, but so far he’s been overshadowed by Van Dijk — in the two matches this season against Liverpool, Van Dijk completely suppressed him.

Today, Liverpool can only field a center-back pairing of Matip and Gomez; if Haaland is still contained, he does not deserve the title of the new generation’s “duo of stars.”

Also, Liverpool’s motivation seems questionable — if this match mattered a lot, why extend Van Dijk’s rest?

Considering Liverpool currently sits 6th in the Premier League, if they want to chase points seriously, it makes sense not to overexert in this relatively unimportant game.

After all, their intense pressing style consumes a lot of energy. Liverpool will play three matches in nine days; this is the first, so conserving energy for the league might be wiser.

Meanwhile, City’s next game is on the 29th, giving them a full seven days of rest, so there’s no need to hold back.

City has already been beaten twice by Liverpool this season; as a world-class coach, wouldn’t Guardiola want to save face?

Taking everything into account, can the home side City satisfy their fans? What do you think? Xiao Jiu is looking forward to their successful revenge.

Alright, for today’s other matches, Xiao Jiu will still provide written analysis this evening. If anything is unclear, feel free to ask me — “watch football and understand it,” see you then!

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