Southeast Asian football through the lens of the 2026 ASEAN Cup: One more reason...

Even with a squad that wasn't at full strength, Thailand managed a 3-1 victory over Singapore in the semifinal first leg of the ASEAN Cup 2026. What was expected to be a balanced contest, according to analysts before the game, turned into a decisive demonstration of superiority. No upset occurred, despite this being the prime moment for Singapore football and the worst phase for Thailand in ten years.

Watching how Thailand controlled the semifinal first leg as they pleased, even the most optimistic observer must acknowledge that Southeast Asian football is losing its developmental momentum. Thailand, whose level has remained nearly stagnant for years, still looks like a different tier when placed next to Singapore—the only team showing signs of improvement in the last three ASEAN Cup editions. Up to this match, Thailand has played five games and conceded just one goal (from a stunning strike), despite facing Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar, and Singapore in succession. It feels like a leisurely stroll.

Moreover, the way Thailand has put one foot in the final confirms that the region's top spot remains in Thai hands, even when they don't give their full effort. But behind that result lies a much larger question: How should teams like Thailand, Indonesia, or Vietnam now approach the ASEAN Cup, when winning it may not prove anything, yet losing invites heavy criticism (as in Indonesia's case)?

The answer came sooner than expected, and it came from the tournament itself, now seen as an upgraded version: the FIFA ASEAN Cup 2026. In its first edition, carrying the "FIFA" label, it offers a million-dollar prize for the champion, with total rewards of four million USD—a substantial sum by regional standards.

But prize money alone doesn't guarantee quality. China withdrew first, without giving an official reason, but their move to organize a separate friendly tournament against stronger opponents during the same period spoke volumes. India followed suit, choosing a friendly against Brazil in Kolkata over a potential final in Southeast Asia. These two consecutive absences forced FIFA to fill the gaps with Pakistan (ranked 198th in the world) and Bangladesh, who are at a similar level.

This isn't exactly an unavoidable hiccup for the tournament's inaugural edition. Initially, many expected the invited teams to come from East Asia or West Asia, with higher FIFA rankings and different playing styles. But in the end, the most "invitable" region turned out to be South Asia, whose football standard is even lower than Southeast Asia's. At this rate, the FIFA ASEAN Cup might end up being weaker than the traditional version.

It's not certain that just because it falls on FIFA Days, teams will use their strongest squads if they don't face desirable opponents. In that case, instead of arranging quality friendlies on their own, teams like Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia might have to "re-fight" each other to prove who is the best in the region. Just look at China or India choosing their opponents for the upcoming FIFA Days, and you'll understand. They'd rather spend money to organize matches against stronger teams.

So, even though Southeast Asia now has two tournaments, they share the same essence: a stage for weaker teams to try to catch up with the region's old powers. Instead of having a truly worthy competition, teams like Thailand and Vietnam face pressure not to lose. The example is clear: Vietnam was heavily criticized just for drawing with Singapore, while Thailand's win over Singapore earned little praise. The expectations from fans in Thailand and Vietnam are unmistakable: they need a different standard.

Of course, Vietnamese football cannot directly influence the quality of these tournaments, but we have the right to choose appropriate actions. For instance, we must confront the reality of the ASEAN Cup's declining quality and realize that the national team's development cannot be tied to the tournament's results. More broadly, even with the addition of the FIFA ASEAN Cup, it's still just a Southeast Asian story. If we remain stuck there, it will be hard to progress further.

The best course is to strive for the ASEAN Cup final, overcome what is likely to be a waiting Thailand, and then regard that as the closing chapter for a new beginning.